Beyond the Arches #42: Stocks react to AI whiplash and Fed interest rate decisions. Use diversification to smooth the ups and downs of 2025. 

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The United States this week ushered in a new and likely contentious era for investment, public policy, and foreign affairs as Donald Trump was sworn in as the nation’s 47th president. Despite the larger implications of the country’s most recent transition of power, the stock market enjoyed record gains in the wake of new infrastructure planning, cooling inflation, and strong economic indicators. 

The tumult continues on Wall Street with new earnings reports, the promise of cooling inflation, and the recent Fed decision to pause interest rate cuts. Discussions of lower-than-expected tariff activity gave investors more confidence that inflation would remain stable for the foreseeable future. Nvidia and other chipmakers suffered dizzying losses with news reports of new Chinese AI contender DeepSeek; specifically, its ability to deliver a fast, free, open-source language model even on previous gen processors (like the H800) at a fraction of the cost of U.S.-backed AI options like OpenAI, xAI, and others. Nvidia suffered an eye-watering 17% loss – wiping out $600 billion in market value in a single day.

Crypto had an exciting week after news of an executive order promoting decentralized currencies and setting up the framework for a national digital asset stockpile. Bitcoin has enjoyed steady gains since early November when election trail discussions promoting coin-based currencies gave crypto speculators fresh optimism about the currencies’ place in the global economy. 

Gold prices notched all-time highs in 2025, driven by the same indicators and discussions fueling cryptocurrency enthusiasm. Gold prices advanced .39% this week, with concerns over a coming trade war prompting some investors to shift position into more seemingly secure asset classes. 

Three exciting FranShares investment opportunities

• Kidokinetics offers accredited investors the opportunity to participate in a $1M capital raise for this franchisor to fuel expansion and enhance the franchisee network
• Bravehart Development presents accredited investors with the opportunity to invest in the first tranche of an investment featuring 10 Hawaiian Bros brand locations.
• Sloan Capital presents accredited investors with the opportunity to invest in this offering, which includes 24 locations of the brand Everbowl.

On Our Radar This Week

• The bluster of the campaign is giving way to reality as the new presidential administration moves toward tariffs on America’s largest trading partners. Beyond discussions of adding new states to the Union, tensions are rising between the United States and its traditional North American trading partners in Canada and Mexico. While the Day One promise of 25% tariffs did not come to pass, discussions of a February deadline to impose 10% tariffs on items like manufactured goods and lumber have analysts and consumers on edge. A brush with punitive tariffs on Columbia (a reaction to the country’s refusal to allow military planes into its airspace as part of deportation efforts) caused concern about pricing for popular commodities such as coffee, oil, and produce. The threat of 25% emergency tariffs had the desired effect – forcing Columbian officials to work out a deal for non-military repatriation. 
  
• In other market news, it has been a tumultuous start of the administration for AI. In the first days of the new administration, the White House and tech venture capital firms bet big on the AI inflection with the announcement of the $500B “Stargate” AI plan. The investment in AI data centers would create the largest AI infrastructure project on the planet. However, some have concerns about foreign investment, such as from the Emirati sovereign wealth fund. Elon Musk chimed in to undermine the proposed deal, speculating that the investors in question don’t actually have the necessary assets to fund such an enterprise.
• On the heels of this announcement, DeepSeek’s open-source, low-cost AI model delivered a punishing refutation of AI leaders’ insistence on bigger, better chips and investments. Only time will tell if the security and efficiency of the model will disprove the need for premium chip development (and its associated premium pricing). 
• American audiences had to wait a tick for the return of TikTok. While a brief shutdown meant U.S. access to the app went dark for about 12 hours, a promised executive order paused the TikTok ban and provided immunity to tech firms. The disposition of TikTok and its connection to Chinese interests remains an open question. The executive order granted the app a 75-day stay, giving its creators time to locate a reasonable buyer or otherwise divorce the U.S. version of the platform from Chinese data services and the perception of Chinese government intrusion. Speculation of buyers for the app range from YouTube star MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) and Elon Musk to a contingent of billionaires led by Frank McCourt.

Macro Bites

• Netflix is raising prices after reporting its biggest-ever subscriber jump. The streaming service is making the play for more revenue from its 300M+ subscribers.
• Procter & Gamble earnings beat estimates as shoppers buy more household staples. Consumer confidence brought the brand a 1% increase in its second quarter as consumer sentiment improves.
• Stellantis Will Restart Illinois Factory that the UAW Pushed to Revive. The revival will bring more jobs to the Midwest, while fulfilling a cultural trend toward domestic production.

Start passively investing in franchises today!

Accredited and non-accredited investors can invest in our latest offering, TNT Franchise Fund Inc., today! 

TNT Franchise Fund Inc. is a diversified portfolio of up to 30 Smash My Trash locations and 25 Teriyaki Madness outlets throughout the United States.

With its patented waste compaction service, Smash My Trash is disrupting the $1.6 trillion waste management sector. By compacting waste in open-top dumpsters to reduce waste volume, customers save money (up to 20% of waste removal costs) and reduce their CO2 emissions by up to 65%.

Teriyaki Madness stands out with its fresh, made-from-scratch meals and a lively, inviting ambiance, revolutionizing the fast-casual Asian dining scene. Its surging popularity is evident on platforms like Yelp, Facebook, and Google, where an increasing community of enthusiasts sing its praises.

Highlights:

• Target locations: Up to 55
• Smash My Trash per-location economics: $885K in revenue with 28% EBITDA after 16 months of operation
• Teriyaki Madness per-location economics: $1.16M in revenue with 20% operating profit

As the Smash My Trash and Teriyaki Madness locations come to fruition, investors in TNT Franchise Fund Inc. can expect to receive excess cash flows from the business operations of the locations on a quarterly basis.

For more information on the offering, contact our team.